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“He said he should have immediately shut down talk about proportional representation…” and “confessed Liberals were deliberately vague in order to appeal to Fair Vote Canada advocates.”

– Toronto Star article about the Justin Trudeau interview, October 3, 2024.

ACT NOW: Please respond to Justin Trudeau's tweet or Facebook post and let him know that you support proportional representation!

Dear ,

In an interview this week, Justin Trudeau admitted that he misled Canadians in 2015, letting them believe that he was open to proportional representation—a reform he is adamant that he would never consider—just to entice Fair Vote Canada supporters.

Today he shared that clip from the interview on his Facebook and X (Twitter) accounts.

In the video, Justin Trudeau is spreading misinformation about proportional representation for Canada.

He's clearly trying to drive down support for proportional representation, while floating a trial balloon for his self-serving and ineffective reform, a winner-take-all ranked ballot.

That's why we need your help now. 

Can you reply to Justin Trudeau's Tweet or Facebook post, letting him know that you support proportional representation? 

Comment on Justin Trudeau's Facebook post
Reply to Justin Trudeau's post on X

With a massive show of support for proportional representation, we can let Trudeau and his strategists know that Canadians want a system that makes every vote count!

You don't need to be lengthy in your tweet or comment. Be polite, and just be yourself.

In addition to saying you support proportional representation, you might consider including one of these points, in your own words:

  • 40% of the vote should get 40% of the seats, and only a proportional system will do this

  • No party should get all the power with 39% of the vote, and only proportional representation can ensure that never happens again

  • Every vote should count, no matter where you live, and that's why I support proportional representation

  • Parties should have to work together to solve long-term problems, and only proportional representation can make that happen

If you'd like more information about Justin Trudeau's misleading statements in the interview, find our more detailed analysis below. 

Please take a moment to use your voice to speak up for proportional representation by responding to Justin Trudeau now. 

With hope and gratitude, 


Anita Nickerson
Executive Director, Fair Vote Canada

P.S. Check out our new explainer video, PR 101 and the evidence for proportional representation here.

Fact Checking Justin Trudeau on Electoral Reform

On October 1, 2024, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau repeated that one of his greatest regrets was not using his 2015 majority government (obtained with 39.5% of the vote) to just force through the voting system he wanted―a winner-take-all ranked ballot system properly called Alternative Vote.

Alternative Vote replicates the problems of first-past-the-post. In some elections, it can produce even more disproportional results.

In the only OECD country where it is used at a national level, Australia, it has helped to entrench a two-party system for almost 100 years.

Byron Weber Becker, an electoral systems expert tasked by the federal Electoral Reform Committee with modelling election results for numerous systems under different conditions, demonstrated what other researchers had previously concluded:

Not only can Alternative Vote be more disproportional than first-past-the-post, the most pronounced effect would be to deliver more seats to the Liberal Party.

An overwhelming majority of Canadians―fully 87% in a 2022 EKOS poll―rightfully reject the idea that any single party should be able to change the voting system to one preferred only by their party.

Almost every country in the OECD that has reformed their electoral system has done it through multi-party agreement.

In 2016, the NDP and Greens went out of their way to offer compromise solutions, including proportional systems that included a ranked ballot, and incremental approaches that would have added a very small element of proportionality to Canada’s electoral system. These attempts to negotiate were ignored.

In 2024, all the Bloc, Greens, NDP, and Independent MPs, 3 Conservatives and 39 Liberal Party MPs voted for a motion by NDP MP Lisa Marie Barron for a non-partisan National Citizens’ Assembly on Electoral Reform, which would have fairly considered all options.

Despite 76% of Canadians in support, this attempt to find common ground was rebuffed by the Prime Minister, too.

Fact Checking Prime Minister Justin Trudeau

Justin Trudeau’s talking points in the interview included several misleading statements that require correction.

1) Trudeau implied that his preferred system, Alternative Vote, is not a winner-take-all system like first-past the post.

The Prime Minister said:

“The winner-take-all version of first-past-the-post we have right now…” (He goes on to describe his view of first-past-the-post and advocate Alternative Vote).

There is no debate, it’s cut and dried: Alternative Vote is another winner-take-all system.

Political scientists usually bundle first-past-the-post and Alternative Vote together, in a family of winner-take-all systems they call “Plurality/Majority”.

With either First-past-the-post or Alternative Vote, there is one winner in each single member district. The winner takes it all. Other voters do not get representation.

With proportional representation, almost every vote counts. Several winners are elected in a manner that represents the diverse viewpoints of local voters. 

2) Trudeau suggests that adopting Alternative Vote could help mitigate polarization.

The Prime Minister said:

“I look at where the world is going, and where polarization is happening, and where excesses of populism have been able to come in. And the winner-take-all version of first-past-the-post we have right now…” (He goes on to describe his view of first-past-the-post and advocate Alternative Vote).

Research looking at 36 democracies from 2000-2019 shows that countries that use proportional representation have lower levels of polarization than those that use winner-take-all systems.

The only OECD country that uses Alternative Vote nationally is Australia, and identity-based polarization is far worse in Australia with AV than it is in Canada:

As John and Hargreaves (2011) note:

“Alternative Vote supports and perhaps encourages hostility between the largest parties thus contributing to Australia‘s harsh political culture.”

“Alternative Vote is also unique in its tendency to direct votes into seats for the two established major parties and prevent the success of new movements and parties, especially moderate parties”.

“Alternative Vote is found to be unique amongst ordinal methods in supporting a rigid, adversarial, two-party system.”

3) Trudeau claims that proportional representation makes MPs accountable only to parties instead of local voters and communities.

The Prime Minister said:

“The big one is I am really worried about is decoupling Members of Parliament in the House from communities that they have to serve.

Then you also have people who got elected because they were on a party list and you have MPs who owe their existence as MPs to a political party as opposed to specific Canadians.”

These statements were so obviously untrue that Liberal MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith (the interviewer) attempted to interject twice to rebut them, saying:

“I don’t think any advocate in Canada is arguing for… doing away with local representation” and

“You can do open lists”.

The Prime Minister talked right over him.

All credible models of proportional representation for Canada are designed to maintain strong local representation. Local representation has been a core value of every commission and assembly in Canada that recommended PR.

All models of proportional representation for Canada mean MPs are directly elected, as individuals, by local voters to represent voters in a specific geographic area.

It is not believable that the Prime Minister made these statements because he does not know the very basics of how proportional representation for Canada could work.

The only reason he would have used misleading or discredited opponent talking points is to manufacture a contrast between his straw man PR system and his preferred winner-take-all ranked ballot system, to get around the problem he acknowledged earlier, namely that nobody agrees with him.

The entire segment makes the case for why electoral reform needs to be informed by evidence and decided by multi-party agreement, so one party (or leader) alone cannot control the agenda.

Leaving a Legacy?

Seven years after Justin Trudeau dismissed the expert consensus for proportional representation and declared “it was my choice to make”, the real fallout from the broken promise may soon be hitting Canadians hard in the face.

One of the consequences of all winner-take-all systems is policy lurch, where one government elected with a false majority undoes the work of the previous one.

Anand Menon, Professor of European Politics and Foreign Affairs at King’s College London recently explained how it works at an event about polarization called “The Centre Cannot Hold”:

“If you think about the kinds of policy issues confronting us today, whether it’s climate change, aging populations, AI, maybe the thing they all have in common is they require medium to long term solutions. In multi-party systems you tend to get longer term public policies because parties are forced to compromise and work together.

If you look at the UK system, one of the greatest problems which I think is at least partly attributable to polarization is their complete inability to do anything even medium term let alone long term. A party comes in and what’s the first thing it does? It promises to overturn what the last party did.

We’ve reached that stage where a political party that thinks it’s going to win an election says we’d like to do this on a cross-party basis knowing full well that when push comes to shove our system just seems incapable of building those sorts of long term coalitions.”

If Justin Trudeau truly wants to foster politics that looks for common ground and avoids massive policy lurch, he needs to get past his partisan myopia, take a good look at the evidence for electoral reform, and most crucially, be willing to compromise.

 

« Il a dit qu’il aurait dû immédiatement mettre fin aux discussions sur la représentation proportionnelle… » et « a avoué que les libéraux étaient délibérément vagues afin de plaire aux partisans de Fair Vote Canada. »

- Article du Toronto Star à propos de l'entrevue, 3 octobre 2024.

AGISSEZ MAINTENANT : Veuillez répondre au tweet ou à la publication Facebook de Justin Trudeau pour lui faire savoir que vous appuyez la représentation proportionnelle !

,

Lors d’une entrevue cette semaine, Justin Trudeau a admis avoir induit les Canadiennes et les Canadiens en erreur en 2015, les laissant croire qu'il était ouvert à la représentation proportionnelle — une réforme qu'il refuse catégoriquement d’envisager — simplement pour attirer les partisanes et les partisans de Fair Vote Canada.

Aujourd’hui, il a partagé cet extrait de l’entrevue sur ses comptes Facebook et Twitter.

Dans la vidéo, Justin Trudeau diffuse de la désinformation sur la représentation proportionnelle au Canada.

Il tente clairement de diminuer le soutien envers la représentation proportionnelle, tout en lançant un ballon d'essai pour sa réforme intéressée et inefficace : un scrutin préférentiel à un seul tour, où le gagnant rafle tout.

C’est pourquoi nous avons besoin de votre aide dès maintenant.

Pouvez-vous répondre au tweet ou à la publication Facebook de Justin Trudeau, pour lui faire savoir que vous appuyez la représentation proportionnelle ?

Commentez la publication Facebook de Justin Trudeau
Répondez au tweet de Justin Trudeau

Avec un immense soutien à la représentation proportionnelle, nous pouvons faire savoir à Trudeau et à ses stratèges que les Canadiennes et les Canadiens veulent un système où chaque vote compte !

Vous n’avez pas besoin d’écrire un long commentaire ou tweet. Soyez poli et restez vous-même.

En plus d’exprimer votre appui à la représentation proportionnelle, vous pourriez envisager d’inclure l’un de ces points, dans vos propres mots :

  • 40 % des voix devraient donner 40 % des sièges, et seul un système proportionnel peut le garantir.

  • Aucun parti ne devrait obtenir tout le pouvoir avec seulement 39 % des voix, et seule la représentation proportionnelle peut s’assurer que cela ne se reproduise plus.

  • Chaque vote devrait compter, peu importe où vous vivez, et c’est pourquoi j’appuie la représentation proportionnelle.

  • Les partis devraient collaborer pour résoudre les problèmes à long terme, et seule la représentation proportionnelle peut le permettre.

Si vous souhaitez plus d’informations sur les déclarations trompeuses de Justin Trudeau lors de l’entrevue, consultez notre analyse détaillée ici.

Merci de prendre un moment pour faire entendre votre voix en faveur de la représentation proportionnelle en répondant à Justin Trudeau dès maintenant.

Avec espoir et gratitude,

Anita Nickerson
Directrice générale, Fair Vote Canada

Fair Vote Canada

88 North Drive
Kitchener, ON N2M 1K8
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